Rapid Intensification Guidance SH242026 260305 00UTC Storm Located at : -15.70 148.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 1.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.60 F TC SIZE [%] 93.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.2 26.0 25.0 25.4 16.9 22.8 35.8 33.0 N N N N F N U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 48.0 51.0 49.0 47.0 15.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 N N N N U U U U Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 120.7 114.4 108.5 F F F F F N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 90.0 81.0 82.0 81.0 71.0 85.0 88.0 89.0 F N N N N F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 72.0 72.0 69.0 77.0 83.0 88.0 88.0 N N N N F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 6.0 11.0 16.0 6.0 -14.0 -19.0 -18.0 N N U U N VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 1.2% 7.2% 4.2% 30kt / 24h 0.4% 1.9% 1.1% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 1.6% 0.8% 40kt / 24h 0.1% 1.6% 0.8% 45kt / 36h 2.7% 8.2% 5.5% 55kt / 36h 0.8% 1.7% 1.2% 55kt / 48h 9.4% 5.1% 7.3% 70kt / 48h 2.7% 1.9% 2.3% 65kt / 72h 5.7% 4.7% 5.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.84 SH242026 260305 00UTC Storm Located at : -15.70 148.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 93.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.2 26.0 25.0 25.4 16.9 22.8 35.8 33.0 N N N N N N F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 72.0 72.0 69.0 77.0 83.0 88.0 88.0 N N N N U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 6.0 11.0 16.0 6.0 -14.0 -19.0 -18.0 N N F F N VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%