Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242026 260305 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.10    147.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.4  24.2  23.6  16.7  17.2  19.7  27.3  25.8  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   49.0  47.0  45.0  21.0   9.0  12.0  15.0   6.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 127.3 110.5 114.4 101.2  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    78.0  82.0  93.0 103.0  80.0  79.0  86.0  82.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  69.0  65.0  69.0  69.0  78.0  84.0  87.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  13.0  15.0  11.0  -1.0  -8.0 -24.0  -4.0  N  U  U  U  N  F VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        1.7%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        6.4%       20.6%       13.5%
 30kt / 24h        2.5%        7.9%        5.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        7.3%        4.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        7.3%        3.8%
 45kt / 36h        7.9%       26.2%       17.1%
 55kt / 36h        3.4%        9.4%        6.4%
 55kt / 48h       19.6%       12.1%       15.8%
 70kt / 48h        7.5%        7.5%        7.5%
 65kt / 72h       10.5%       14.2%       12.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.74

 SH242026 260305 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.10    147.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.4  24.2  23.6  16.7  17.2  19.7  27.3  25.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  69.0  65.0  69.0  69.0  78.0  84.0  87.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  13.0  15.0  11.0  -1.0  -8.0 -24.0  -4.0  N  F  F  F  N  U VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%