Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242026 260305 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.00    146.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  22.5  15.0  15.7  20.2  26.1  25.8  30.7  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  44.0  32.0  35.0   7.0  25.0  11.0   2.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 120.7 118.6 110.5 101.2  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    82.0  93.0 103.0  74.0  81.0  84.0  84.0  92.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  66.0  73.0  72.0  75.0  86.0  86.0  86.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0  13.0  11.0   5.0  -7.0 -17.0 -14.0  -4.0  U  U  U  N  F VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        1.3%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        6.2%       20.1%       13.2%
 30kt / 24h        2.7%        7.6%        5.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        7.3%        4.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        7.3%        3.8%
 45kt / 36h        6.2%       20.7%       13.5%
 55kt / 36h        2.6%        6.8%        4.7%
 55kt / 48h       14.6%        9.5%       12.1%
 70kt / 48h        5.2%        5.7%        5.4%
 65kt / 72h        5.7%       10.1%        7.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.70

 SH242026 260305 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.00    146.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  22.5  15.0  15.7  20.2  26.1  25.8  30.7  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  66.0  73.0  72.0  75.0  86.0  86.0  86.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0  13.0  11.0   5.0  -7.0 -17.0 -14.0  -4.0  F  F  F  N  U VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%