Rapid Intensification Guidance SH242026 260306 06UTC Storm Located at : -17.70 146.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 29.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 22.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.40 F TC SIZE [%] 119.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 10.2 14.6 19.4 19.3 25.0 29.9 35.9 40.3 F F N N N N U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 12.0 32.0 9.0 11.5 16.5 21.5 12.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 140.0 139.3 127.9 130.1 119.4 115.5 119.4 104.4 F F N F N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 70.0 87.0 82.0 69.0 77.0 80.0 103.0 122.0 N F N N N N F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 70.0 66.0 67.0 64.0 65.0 70.0 72.0 74.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 -0.0 -0.0 -3.0 -20.0 -25.0 -30.0 -29.0 N N N N VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.5% 2.3% 1.4% 25kt / 24h 4.1% 19.4% 11.7% 30kt / 24h 1.4% 7.7% 4.6% 35kt / 24h 0.4% 6.9% 3.6% 40kt / 24h 0.2% 6.9% 3.5% 45kt / 36h 3.3% 21.5% 12.4% 55kt / 36h 1.6% 7.8% 4.7% 55kt / 48h 13.6% 4.7% 9.1% 70kt / 48h 4.7% 5.9% 5.3% 65kt / 72h 5.2% 9.9% 7.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.34 SH242026 260306 06UTC Storm Located at : -17.70 146.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F TC SIZE [%] 119.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 10.2 14.6 19.4 19.3 25.0 29.9 35.9 40.3 U U N N N N F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 70.0 66.0 67.0 64.0 65.0 70.0 72.0 74.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 -0.0 -0.0 -3.0 -20.0 -25.0 -30.0 -29.0 N N N N VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%