Rapid Intensification Guidance SH242026 260306 12UTC Storm Located at : -18.90 145.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 20.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 8.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.40 F TC SIZE [%] 129.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.3 19.8 19.5 21.7 31.3 41.2 41.5 43.8 F N N N U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 28.2 26.4 24.7 22.9 19.3 15.8 10.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 139.3 130.1 123.6 123.6 111.6 111.6 123.6 104.4 F F N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 59.0 61.0 70.0 77.0 83.0 91.0 113.0 123.0 N N N N N F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 66.0 64.0 63.0 63.0 66.0 69.0 71.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 3.0 -5.0 -9.0 -11.0 -24.0 -25.0 -38.0 N N F F F VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.3% 1.4% 0.9% 25kt / 24h 2.0% 11.2% 6.6% 30kt / 24h 0.6% 4.1% 2.4% 35kt / 24h 0.3% 3.4% 1.8% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 3.3% 1.6% 45kt / 36h 1.2% 11.4% 6.3% 55kt / 36h 0.6% 3.6% 2.1% 55kt / 48h 8.6% 2.5% 5.5% 70kt / 48h 2.5% 2.1% 2.3% 65kt / 72h 2.5% 4.3% 3.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.10 SH242026 260306 12UTC Storm Located at : -18.90 145.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F TC SIZE [%] 129.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.3 19.8 19.5 21.7 31.3 41.2 41.5 43.8 U N N N N VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 66.0 64.0 63.0 63.0 66.0 69.0 71.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 3.0 -5.0 -9.0 -11.0 -24.0 -25.0 -38.0 N N U U U VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%