Rapid Intensification Guidance SH242026 260306 18UTC Storm Located at : -19.30 143.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 20.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 4.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.10 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.0 18.6 21.9 22.5 28.6 41.7 53.0 67.7 F N N N N VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 2.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 132.3 123.6 123.6 123.6 111.6 121.5 106.2 80.4 F N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 42.0 32.0 37.0 32.0 61.0 79.0 128.0 150.0 N N N N N N F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 62.0 59.0 59.0 61.0 69.0 74.0 74.0 N N U U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 -0.0 1.0 -1.0 1.0 -9.0 8.0 -20.0 N N N N N F U VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 1.2% 0.6% 25kt / 24h 0.7% 7.7% 4.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 2.7% 1.5% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 2.1% 1.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 45kt / 36h 0.4% 9.8% 5.1% 55kt / 36h 0.3% 2.9% 1.6% 55kt / 48h 2.0% 1.3% 1.7% 70kt / 48h 0.3% 1.2% 0.8% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.8% 0.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.96 SH242026 260306 18UTC Storm Located at : -19.30 143.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.0 18.6 21.9 22.5 28.6 41.7 53.0 67.7 U N N N N VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 62.0 59.0 59.0 61.0 69.0 74.0 74.0 N N F F N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 -0.0 1.0 -1.0 1.0 -9.0 8.0 -20.0 N N N N N U F VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%