Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242026 260307 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.90    141.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.5  27.0  28.3  32.7  40.3  36.5  53.8  67.8  F  N  N  U  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  20.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 127.9 127.9 127.9 123.6 123.6 117.4  91.5  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0  54.0  52.0  79.0  65.0  36.0   9.0  81.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  67.0  65.0  59.0  61.0  65.0  68.0  63.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0   3.0   3.0  -0.0  -3.0   5.0  29.0  26.0  N  N  N  N  N  N VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        5.0%        2.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        4.4%        2.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        0.7%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.24

 SH242026 260307 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.90    141.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.5  27.0  28.3  32.7  40.3  36.5  53.8  67.8  N  N  N  F  F  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  67.0  65.0  59.0  61.0  65.0  68.0  63.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0   3.0   3.0  -0.0  -3.0   5.0  29.0  26.0  N  N  N  N  N  N VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%