Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242026 260307 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.50    140.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.8  19.7  22.4  28.4  40.9  62.0  69.6  72.2  N  N  N  N VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0  15.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 142.0 120.5 113.0  88.0  74.8  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  54.0  32.0  33.0  52.0  31.0  97.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  64.0  66.0  63.0  62.0  64.0  62.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -0.0  21.0  11.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N VU  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.2%       12.0%        6.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        4.4%        2.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        4.0%        2.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.3%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        9.3%        4.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        2.7%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h       -0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.94

 SH242026 260307 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.50    140.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.8  19.7  22.4  28.4  40.9  62.0  69.6  72.2  N  N  N  N VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  64.0  66.0  63.0  62.0  64.0  62.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -0.0  21.0  11.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N VF  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%