Rapid Intensification Guidance SH242026 260308 06UTC Storm Located at : -21.00 141.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 24.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 13.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.90 F TC SIZE [%] 105.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.3 39.8 47.0 57.8 81.3 90.6 56.7 50.2 N U VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 1.0 1.0 1.0 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 128.6 114.8 118.5 120.5 90.8 80.5 78.2 71.7 F N N N N N N U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 36.0 60.0 57.0 69.0 49.0 -28.0 -85.0 -76.0 N N N N N VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 67.0 62.0 65.0 61.0 55.0 46.0 24.0 N N N N N U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 -7.0 -11.0 -0.0 17.0 41.0 53.0 52.0 N F F N U VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.54 SH242026 260308 06UTC Storm Located at : -21.00 141.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F TC SIZE [%] 105.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.3 39.8 47.0 57.8 81.3 90.6 56.7 50.2 N F VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 67.0 62.0 65.0 61.0 55.0 46.0 24.0 N N N N N F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 -7.0 -11.0 -0.0 17.0 41.0 53.0 52.0 N U U N F VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%