Rapid Intensification Guidance SH242026 260309 12UTC Storm Located at : -24.50 154.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 37.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 20.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.50 F TC SIZE [%] 118.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 54.6 60.8 56.2 61.0 39.5 42.7 46.4 55.7 VU VU VU VU U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 87.7 77.2 71.7 64.3 56.7 50.0 45.8 42.6 N U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 45.0 67.0 49.0 4.0 -24.0 -9.0 46.0 18.0 N N N U VU U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 63.0 59.0 50.0 38.0 44.0 49.0 51.0 N N U U VU VU U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -2.0 1.0 8.0 -1.0 -38.0 -51.0 -58.0 N N N U N VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.72 SH242026 260309 12UTC Storm Located at : -24.50 154.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.