Rapid Intensification Guidance SH252026 260304 12UTC Storm Located at : -11.30 110.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 13.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 11.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.40 F TC SIZE [%] 88.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 55.8 64.6 72.1 70.1 58.6 58.6 58.6 58.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 70.0 69.0 68.0 74.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 42.0 34.0 38.0 37.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 N N N N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 73.0 76.0 78.0 74.0 74.0 74.0 74.0 N N F F N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -0.0 -6.0 -10.0 -6.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 N F F F N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.18 SH252026 260304 12UTC Storm Located at : -11.30 110.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 88.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 55.8 64.6 72.1 70.1 58.6 58.6 58.6 58.6 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 73.0 76.0 78.0 74.0 74.0 74.0 74.0 N N U U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -0.0 -6.0 -10.0 -6.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 N U U U N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 4.3% 1.0% 2.6%