Rapid Intensification Guidance SH252026 260304 18UTC Storm Located at : -11.00 111.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 13.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 6.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.30 F TC SIZE [%] 86.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 74.2 81.4 75.2 71.1 55.3 47.7 59.8 50.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 69.0 68.0 72.0 76.0 72.0 74.0 76.0 51.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 33.0 28.0 25.0 35.0 39.0 44.0 40.0 47.0 N U U N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 76.0 78.0 78.0 80.0 74.0 73.0 68.0 67.0 F F F F N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -14.0 -8.0 2.0 10.0 10.0 7.0 20.0 F VF F N U U N VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.24 SH252026 260304 18UTC Storm Located at : -11.00 111.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 86.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 74.2 81.4 75.2 71.1 55.3 47.7 59.8 50.6 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 76.0 78.0 78.0 80.0 74.0 73.0 68.0 67.0 U U U U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -14.0 -8.0 2.0 10.0 10.0 7.0 20.0 U VU U N F F N VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 11.2% 1.7% 6.4%