Rapid Intensification Guidance SH252026 260305 00UTC Storm Located at : -10.70 113.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 21.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 15.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.90 F TC SIZE [%] 62.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 82.1 81.4 66.7 57.2 41.3 38.5 48.7 42.1 VU VU VU VU VU U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 70.0 75.0 77.0 80.0 69.0 73.0 77.0 48.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 22.0 33.0 32.0 17.0 42.0 29.0 57.0 59.0 U N N U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 76.0 77.0 73.0 71.0 68.0 69.0 71.0 F F F N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 -9.0 -2.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 6.0 18.0 F F N N N N N VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.32 SH252026 260305 00UTC Storm Located at : -10.70 113.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 62.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 82.1 81.4 66.7 57.2 41.3 38.5 48.7 42.1 VF VF VF VF VF F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 76.0 77.0 73.0 71.0 68.0 69.0 71.0 U U U N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 -9.0 -2.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 6.0 18.0 U U N N N N N VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 10.4% 2.1% 6.3%