Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH252026 260305 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.80    115.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        80.2  64.5  58.1  49.0  36.3  30.6  28.8  30.5 VU VU VU VU  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   75.0  79.0  78.0  69.0  77.0  68.0  29.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 119.6  93.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0  32.0  26.0  44.0  36.0  48.0  43.0  25.0  U  N  U  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  76.0  71.0  68.0  63.0  62.0  71.0  60.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -2.0   2.0   6.0   8.0  15.0  22.0  -0.0  F  N  N  N  U  U VU  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.40

 SH252026 260305 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.80    115.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        80.2  64.5  58.1  49.0  36.3  30.6  28.8  30.5 VF VF VF VF  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  76.0  71.0  68.0  63.0  62.0  71.0  60.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -2.0   2.0   6.0   8.0  15.0  22.0  -0.0  U  N  N  N  F  F VF  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        6.1%        1.7%        3.9%