Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH252026 260305 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.90    118.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     51.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        63.7  52.3  45.5  41.5  29.5  35.1  43.4  45.7 VU VU VU VU  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   79.0  68.0  66.0  66.0  69.0  78.0  51.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  25.0  47.0  40.0  30.0  45.0  37.0  32.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  70.0  67.0  65.0  63.0  66.0  65.0  62.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0   2.0   4.0   4.0   6.0  10.0  18.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.9%        0.3%        0.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.46

 SH252026 260305 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.90    118.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     51.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        63.7  52.3  45.5  41.5  29.5  35.1  43.4  45.7 VF VF VF VF  N  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  70.0  67.0  65.0  63.0  66.0  65.0  62.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0   2.0   4.0   4.0   6.0  10.0  18.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  N  F VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.6%        0.4%