Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH252026 260305 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.90    120.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     62.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.6  40.3  35.1  22.8  19.1  21.5  16.6  28.7 VU  U  U  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   78.0  69.0  67.0  69.0  78.0  44.0  12.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 108.5  89.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  20.0  23.0  28.0  48.0  59.0  25.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  67.0  65.0  65.0  67.0  71.0  70.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   3.0   7.0   8.0  10.0  21.0  -4.0  -8.0  N  N  N  U  U VU  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        2.4%        1.4%        1.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        5.6%        1.9%        3.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.50

 SH252026 260305 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.90    120.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     62.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.6  40.3  35.1  22.8  19.1  21.5  16.6  28.7 VF  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  67.0  65.0  65.0  67.0  71.0  70.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   3.0   7.0   8.0  10.0  21.0  -4.0  -8.0  N  N  N  F  F VF  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%