Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH252026 260306 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.40    120.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.2  27.3  28.0  29.6  34.0  34.0  34.0  34.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   80.0  79.0  73.0  63.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  40.0  22.0   8.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  58.0  58.0  57.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.0  12.0  23.0  42.0  28.0  28.0  28.0  28.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.1%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        2.6%       10.4%        6.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        3.4%        2.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        2.8%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        2.4%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        1.2%        8.9%        5.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        2.2%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        4.7%        3.3%        4.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        1.0%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h        6.0%        2.4%        4.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.44

 SH252026 260306 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.40    120.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.2  27.3  28.0  29.6  34.0  34.0  34.0  34.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  58.0  58.0  57.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.0  12.0  23.0  42.0  28.0  28.0  28.0  28.0  F  F VF VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%