Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH262026 260306 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.90    113.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.5  35.4  36.3  36.9  27.9  24.6  23.6  24.9  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   49.0  47.0  46.0  42.0  32.0  16.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 127.0 113.6  94.4  87.7  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     4.0  13.0  31.0  45.0  29.0  35.0  30.0  39.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  72.0  72.0  70.0  71.0  68.0  67.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -1.0  -0.0   1.0   3.0  -0.0  -1.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        0.6%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.9%        2.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.0%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        3.5%        1.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        1.2%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.6%        0.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.92

 SH262026 260306 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.90    113.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.5  35.4  36.3  36.9  27.9  24.6  23.6  24.9  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  72.0  72.0  70.0  71.0  68.0  67.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -1.0  -0.0   1.0   3.0  -0.0  -1.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%