Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH262026 260306 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.90    112.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.5  37.9  39.0  40.8  32.1  32.0  28.0  25.4  U  U  U VU  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   49.0  47.0  46.0  44.0  32.0  16.0   3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 127.0 113.6  98.0  92.7  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  29.0  30.0  29.0  24.0  37.0  25.0  19.0  U  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  72.0  71.0  66.0  61.0  63.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -1.0   1.0  -0.0   1.0   1.0  -5.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.6%        2.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        2.7%        1.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.90

 SH262026 260306 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.90    112.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.5  37.9  39.0  40.8  32.1  32.0  28.0  25.4  F  F  F VF  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  72.0  71.0  66.0  61.0  63.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -1.0   1.0  -0.0   1.0   1.0  -5.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%