Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH262026 260306 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.00    112.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.1  36.6  35.1  38.4  28.7  27.7  32.3  34.6  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  44.0  36.0  28.0  16.0   7.0   4.0   2.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 127.0 109.4 103.5 101.6  96.2  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -10.0   5.0 -15.0 -31.0   6.0  -5.0   7.0  28.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  71.0  67.0  63.0  63.0  57.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0  -2.0  -0.0   4.0   2.0  -0.0  -3.0  -5.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.3%        2.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        3.1%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.64

 SH262026 260306 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.00    112.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.1  36.6  35.1  38.4  28.7  27.7  32.3  34.6  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  71.0  67.0  63.0  63.0  57.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0  -2.0  -0.0   4.0   2.0  -0.0  -3.0  -5.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%