Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH262026 260307 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.50    111.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.9  29.2  31.8  32.3  31.1  29.9  30.9  21.4  N  N  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  33.0  31.0  22.0  13.0   5.0   1.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 120.1 115.7 113.6  98.0  94.4  89.3  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    25.0   1.0  -4.0  -8.0 -22.0 -18.0   9.0 -22.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  66.0  69.0  66.0  67.0  65.0  68.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0   1.0   6.0  -7.0  -7.0  -5.0  -4.0  -4.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.0%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.0%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h       -0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.34

 SH262026 260307 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.50    111.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.9  29.2  31.8  32.3  31.1  29.9  30.9  21.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  66.0  69.0  66.0  67.0  65.0  68.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0   1.0   6.0  -7.0  -7.0  -5.0  -4.0  -4.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%