Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH262026 260307 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.20    110.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.6  27.4  27.7  27.4  27.0  28.1  25.9  21.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  20.0  18.0   9.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.1 115.7 105.5 105.5  89.3  84.6  80.0  87.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  -4.0  -9.0   9.0 -20.0  -4.0 -15.0 -12.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  70.0  66.0  69.0  68.0  67.0  72.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   9.0 -10.0 -16.0  -3.0  -4.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  U  F VF  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.9%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.0%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.6%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%       -0.0%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h       -0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.74

 SH262026 260307 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.20    110.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.6  27.4  27.7  27.4  27.0  28.1  25.9  21.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  70.0  66.0  69.0  68.0  67.0  72.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   9.0 -10.0 -16.0  -3.0  -4.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  F  U VU  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%