Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH262026 260307 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.60    108.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.8  23.1  24.7  24.8  22.5  26.8  18.5  18.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0   9.0   6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        113.6 105.5 101.6  98.0  84.6  80.0  78.6  86.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0  -3.0   4.0   1.0   7.0  11.0  -1.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  62.0  64.0  62.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -3.0  -2.0  -0.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.7%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        0.1%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.36

 SH262026 260307 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.60    108.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.