Rapid Intensification Guidance SH262026 260310 06UTC Storm Located at : -17.30 99.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.20 F TC SIZE [%] 57.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.8 19.6 16.8 17.3 13.4 15.6 13.9 16.6 N N F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 4.0 2.0 3.0 5.0 1.0 4.0 9.0 14.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 104.4 113.5 104.4 104.4 102.7 104.4 108.0 109.8 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 1.0 -2.0 1.0 19.0 23.0 18.0 20.0 12.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 61.0 57.0 58.0 55.0 52.0 48.0 45.0 N N U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -1.0 -1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.0% 0.6% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 3.0% 1.6% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 55kt / 48h 4.6% 1.4% 3.0% 70kt / 48h 1.4% 0.7% 1.1% 65kt / 72h 1.4% 2.5% 1.9% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.80 SH262026 260310 06UTC Storm Located at : -17.30 99.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.