Rapid Intensification Guidance SH262026 260310 12UTC Storm Located at : -17.10 99.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.00 F TC SIZE [%] 51.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.9 24.5 24.2 27.3 19.0 19.2 13.4 14.8 N N N N N N F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 2.0 8.0 9.0 15.0 15.0 12.0 18.0 19.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 113.5 113.5 111.6 111.6 119.4 111.6 111.6 115.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 1.0 23.0 41.0 25.0 0.0 11.0 23.0 17.0 U U N U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 59.0 59.0 60.0 59.0 60.0 56.0 55.0 N U U N U N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -1.0 -1.0 -0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -0.0 -1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 2.0% 1.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 1.2% 0.2% 0.7% 70kt / 48h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 65kt / 72h 1.1% 2.4% 1.7% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.06 SH262026 260310 12UTC Storm Located at : -17.10 99.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.