Rapid Intensification Guidance SH262026 260310 18UTC Storm Located at : -16.80 98.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 1.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.30 F TC SIZE [%] 53.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.5 24.2 27.4 25.2 21.1 15.5 17.8 15.7 N N N N N F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 8.0 9.0 15.0 15.0 24.0 24.0 29.0 26.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 111.6 111.6 111.6 119.4 119.4 119.4 115.5 119.4 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 24.0 41.0 25.0 0.0 7.0 10.0 32.0 16.0 U N U U U U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 58.0 58.0 57.0 58.0 58.0 54.0 53.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -1.0 -0.0 -1.0 -3.0 -0.0 -3.0 -0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.1% 0.6% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 2.8% 1.4% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 55kt / 48h 2.6% 0.6% 1.6% 70kt / 48h 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 65kt / 72h 3.0% 3.7% 3.3% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.20 SH262026 260310 18UTC Storm Located at : -16.80 98.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.