Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH272026 260317 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.60    156.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     88.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     62.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.5  32.6  30.5  29.6  21.5  24.2  27.0  34.9  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   77.0  73.0  69.0  66.0  61.0  58.0  55.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0 -12.0  24.0  27.0  62.0  90.0  79.0  37.0  U  U  U  U  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  68.0  67.0  71.0  72.0  71.0  75.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0   1.0   2.0  -0.0  -0.0   2.0   1.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       16.9%       14.1%       15.5%
 25kt / 24h       33.8%       47.2%       40.5%
 30kt / 24h       23.1%       36.1%       29.6%
 35kt / 24h       23.1%       36.1%       29.6%
 40kt / 24h        6.8%       30.4%       18.6%
 45kt / 36h       18.8%       48.1%       33.4%
 55kt / 36h       10.7%       28.3%       19.5%
 55kt / 48h       17.1%       26.2%       21.7%
 70kt / 48h        6.0%       16.8%       11.4%
 65kt / 72h        7.5%       22.1%       14.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.46

 SH272026 260317 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.60    156.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.5  32.6  30.5  29.6  21.5  24.2  27.0  34.9  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  68.0  67.0  71.0  72.0  71.0  75.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0   1.0   2.0  -0.0  -0.0   2.0   1.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%