Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH272026 260317 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.40    155.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     87.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.6  26.8  29.3  26.6  24.7  28.6  38.5  33.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   74.0  73.0  66.0  66.0  60.0  56.0  53.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0  13.0  15.0  57.0  91.0  65.0  51.0   2.0  U  U  U  N  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  70.0  72.0  72.0  71.0  71.0  68.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0  -0.0   1.0   2.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       41.6%       28.5%       35.1%
 25kt / 24h       52.1%       63.7%       57.9%
 30kt / 24h       46.0%       59.9%       53.0%
 35kt / 24h       46.0%       59.9%       53.0%
 40kt / 24h       18.7%       54.8%       36.7%
 45kt / 36h       33.3%       53.9%       43.6%
 55kt / 36h       19.4%       33.9%       26.6%
 55kt / 48h       14.8%       27.0%       20.9%
 70kt / 48h        4.8%       13.5%        9.2%
 65kt / 72h        2.5%       10.8%        6.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.38

 SH272026 260317 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.40    155.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.6  26.8  29.3  26.6  24.7  28.6  38.5  33.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  70.0  72.0  72.0  71.0  71.0  68.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0  -0.0   1.0   2.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%