Rapid Intensification Guidance SH272026 260317 18UTC Storm Located at : -12.10 154.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 95.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 82.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 120.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.1 29.0 26.6 27.9 33.5 34.2 40.8 29.4 N N N N U U VU N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 76.0 71.0 71.0 65.0 60.0 55.0 14.0 64.0 N N N N N N U N Potential [kt] 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 13.0 15.0 56.0 68.0 97.0 75.0 34.0 29.0 U U N N F N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 68.0 72.0 74.0 75.0 71.0 74.0 74.0 71.0 N N N F N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 -0.0 1.0 3.0 1.0 -0.0 -0.0 1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 32.2% 23.3% 27.8% 25kt / 24h 48.6% 58.1% 53.4% 30kt / 24h 40.0% 54.3% 47.1% 35kt / 24h 40.0% 54.3% 47.1% 40kt / 24h 15.0% 49.8% 32.4% 45kt / 36h 29.6% 36.9% 33.2% 55kt / 36h 14.1% 17.8% 15.9% 55kt / 48h 10.7% 18.7% 14.7% 70kt / 48h 3.0% 6.2% 4.6% 65kt / 72h 1.8% 6.1% 3.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.30 SH272026 260317 18UTC Storm Located at : -12.10 154.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 120.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.1 29.0 26.6 27.9 33.5 34.2 40.8 29.4 N N N N F F VF N Humidity 700-500 hPa 68.0 72.0 74.0 75.0 71.0 74.0 74.0 71.0 N N N U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 -0.0 1.0 3.0 1.0 -0.0 -0.0 1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%