Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH272026 260318 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.70    152.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     96.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     89.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.4  29.3  26.6  37.4  36.1  40.3  34.4  32.1  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   65.0  60.0  59.0  58.0  54.0  14.0  64.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    76.0  96.0  83.0  74.0  59.0  18.0  -1.0  11.0  N  F  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  73.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  73.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0   2.0   2.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       54.6%       28.8%       41.7%
 25kt / 24h       56.7%       59.6%       58.1%
 30kt / 24h       44.7%       58.3%       51.5%
 35kt / 24h       44.4%       58.3%       51.3%
 40kt / 24h       36.6%       55.9%       46.3%
 45kt / 36h       30.7%       24.5%       27.6%
 55kt / 36h       11.4%        9.3%       10.3%
 55kt / 48h        1.8%        9.6%        5.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        2.0%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        2.5%        1.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.08

 SH272026 260318 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.70    152.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.4  29.3  26.6  37.4  36.1  40.3  34.4  32.1  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  73.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  73.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0   2.0   2.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%