Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH272026 260318 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.00    150.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     93.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     89.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.7  30.6  39.1  35.5  34.6  34.7  30.1  28.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   64.0  59.0  59.0  57.0  58.0  53.0  76.0  81.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    61.0  75.0  68.0  65.0  44.0  19.0  35.0  17.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  75.0  74.0  73.0  70.0  66.0  66.0  73.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   2.0  -0.0   1.0  -0.0  -0.0   2.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       63.7%       23.0%       43.3%
 25kt / 24h       45.7%       38.4%       42.0%
 30kt / 24h       36.2%       33.1%       34.6%
 35kt / 24h       36.2%       33.1%       34.6%
 40kt / 24h       30.7%       28.2%       29.4%
 45kt / 36h       39.9%       17.7%       28.8%
 55kt / 36h        8.2%        6.5%        7.3%
 55kt / 48h        3.3%        3.1%        3.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.02

 SH272026 260318 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.00    150.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.7  30.6  39.1  35.5  34.6  34.7  30.1  28.6  F  N  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  75.0  74.0  73.0  70.0  66.0  66.0  73.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   2.0  -0.0   1.0  -0.0  -0.0   2.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%