Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH272026 260319 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.60    147.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]    100.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]    100.00            VF
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.4  31.0  34.2  37.0  35.9  34.0  32.5  25.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  53.0  52.0  23.0  64.0  73.0  59.0  29.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  63.0  70.0  48.0   0.0  29.0  18.0  32.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  69.0  67.0  64.0  65.0  71.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0  -0.0   1.0   1.0   2.0  -0.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       45.1%        9.9%       27.5%
 25kt / 24h       17.3%       12.1%       14.7%
 30kt / 24h       13.7%        8.3%       11.0%
 35kt / 24h       13.7%        8.3%       11.0%
 40kt / 24h        8.9%        5.0%        7.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.84

 SH272026 260319 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.60    147.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.4  31.0  34.2  37.0  35.9  34.0  32.5  25.0  F  N  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  69.0  67.0  64.0  65.0  71.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0  -0.0   1.0   1.0   2.0  -0.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        7.6%        3.8%