Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH272026 260319 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.60    146.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     95.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     88.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.3  36.0  37.0  40.7  36.1  36.2  26.7  26.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  52.0  23.0  53.0  70.0  81.0  13.0  47.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]         40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  71.0  48.0  27.0  19.0  23.0  19.0  37.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  69.0  67.0  66.0  68.0  67.0  72.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -0.0   1.0  -0.0   2.0   1.0  -0.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       29.7%        5.1%       17.4%
 25kt / 24h        7.3%        4.7%        6.0%
 30kt / 24h        5.8%        2.8%        4.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.90

 SH272026 260319 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.60    146.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.3  36.0  37.0  40.7  36.1  36.2  26.7  26.0  N  F  F VF  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  69.0  67.0  66.0  68.0  67.0  72.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -0.0   1.0  -0.0   2.0   1.0  -0.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        9.8%        4.9%