Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH272026 260319 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.60    145.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     91.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     79.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.3  36.2  39.7  37.0  36.2  35.9  27.9  29.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   56.0  54.0  53.0  67.0  76.0  67.0  27.5  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]         40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  44.0  23.0  17.0  34.0  24.0  41.0  63.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  70.0  68.0  71.0  69.0  74.0  79.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0   3.0   2.0   1.0  -0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.1%        2.2%        7.2%
 25kt / 24h        2.6%        2.4%        2.5%
 30kt / 24h        2.0%        1.4%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.00

 SH272026 260319 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.60    145.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.3  36.2  39.7  37.0  36.2  35.9  27.9  29.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  70.0  68.0  71.0  69.0  74.0  79.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0   3.0   2.0   1.0  -0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%       11.6%        5.8%