Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH272026 260319 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.80    144.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]    100.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     99.00            VF
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.1  37.8  36.6  35.4  35.3  29.4  25.7  27.3  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  63.0  66.0  71.0  81.0  14.0  44.0  26.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]         40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  23.0  17.0  42.0  27.0  31.0  60.0  64.0  N  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  66.0  69.0  69.0  71.0  77.0  78.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0   1.0   3.0   1.0   2.0   1.0  -1.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        0.5%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        0.9%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.28

 SH272026 260319 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.80    144.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.1  37.8  36.6  35.4  35.3  29.4  25.7  27.3  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  66.0  69.0  69.0  71.0  77.0  78.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0   1.0   3.0   1.0   2.0   1.0  -1.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%       18.2%        9.1%