Rapid Intensification Guidance SH272026 260320 00UTC Storm Located at : -13.40 143.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 99.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 99.00 VF IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 100.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 49.8 45.7 43.8 40.2 39.5 46.8 47.6 38.8 VU VU VU U U VU VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 53.0 66.0 75.0 76.0 81.0 8.0 57.0 77.0 N N N N N U N N Potential [kt] 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 54.0 33.0 55.0 57.0 47.0 51.0 36.0 39.0 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 61.0 67.0 62.0 62.0 63.0 64.0 63.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -0.0 -0.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.9% 0.1% 0.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.38 SH272026 260320 00UTC Storm Located at : -13.40 143.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F TC SIZE [%] 100.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 49.8 45.7 43.8 40.2 39.5 46.8 47.6 38.8 VF VF VF F F VF VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 61.0 67.0 62.0 62.0 63.0 64.0 63.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -0.0 -0.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 34.2% 17.1%