Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH272026 260320 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.40    140.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.6  38.3  32.1  33.1  25.9  29.7  27.6  25.9  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   75.0  76.0  78.0  81.0  13.0  53.0  32.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  42.0  27.0  48.0  42.0  49.0  52.0  59.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  65.0  63.0  61.0  62.0  66.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -2.0  -1.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.0%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.0%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        0.3%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.9%        0.2%        0.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.70

 SH272026 260320 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.40    140.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.6  38.3  32.1  33.1  25.9  29.7  27.6  25.9  F  F  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  65.0  63.0  61.0  62.0  66.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -2.0  -1.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        6.7%        3.3%