Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH272026 260321 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.90    138.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.0  34.4  31.4  30.3  26.5  25.1  25.2  23.4 VU  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   78.0  81.0  38.0   9.0  53.0  32.0  36.0  56.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  29.0  27.0  24.0  55.0  55.0  58.0  46.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  67.0  70.0  65.0  62.0  62.0  65.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   1.0   2.0   4.0   1.0   6.0  -2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.2%        2.2%        3.2%
 25kt / 24h        6.7%       10.7%        8.7%
 30kt / 24h        4.0%        6.2%        5.1%
 35kt / 24h        2.4%        6.2%        4.3%
 40kt / 24h        2.4%        5.0%        3.7%
 45kt / 36h        3.2%        2.7%        3.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        0.6%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        3.1%        1.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        3.2%        1.6%        2.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.74

 SH272026 260321 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.90    138.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.0  34.4  31.4  30.3  26.5  25.1  25.2  23.4 VF  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  67.0  70.0  65.0  62.0  62.0  65.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   1.0   2.0   4.0   1.0   6.0  -2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%