Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH272026 260321 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.00    137.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     96.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     86.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.9  33.6  30.3  31.3  21.4  23.7  22.1  23.5  U  U  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   81.0  19.0   8.0  27.5  60.0  37.0  83.0  65.0  N  U  U  U  N  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  32.0  34.0  68.0  54.0  55.0  30.0  18.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  70.0  65.0  64.0  67.0  63.0  66.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   7.0   2.0  -0.0   1.0  -1.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       31.6%       12.4%       22.0%
 25kt / 24h       28.1%       32.0%       30.1%
 30kt / 24h       22.1%       28.2%       25.1%
 35kt / 24h       22.1%       28.2%       25.1%
 40kt / 24h       15.8%       24.0%       19.9%
 45kt / 36h       21.3%       15.4%       18.3%
 55kt / 36h        5.2%        5.3%        5.3%
 55kt / 48h        2.1%        7.8%        5.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        2.0%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.5%        3.7%        2.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.86

 SH272026 260321 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.00    137.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.9  33.6  30.3  31.3  21.4  23.7  22.1  23.5  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  70.0  65.0  64.0  67.0  63.0  66.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   7.0   2.0  -0.0   1.0  -1.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.3%        0.6%