Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH272026 260321 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.10    136.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     93.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.2  32.3  31.6  28.9  23.9  23.8  21.1  18.4  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0   8.0  27.5  47.0  28.0  79.0  39.0  51.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  46.0  46.0  40.0  63.0  40.0  27.0  35.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  77.0  76.0  78.0  81.0  77.0  75.0  76.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   4.0   2.0   1.0   3.0  -1.0   2.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       17.6%        9.4%       13.5%
 25kt / 24h       21.5%       28.1%       24.8%
 30kt / 24h       16.5%       24.8%       20.7%
 35kt / 24h       16.5%       24.8%       20.7%
 40kt / 24h        9.4%       20.5%       15.0%
 45kt / 36h       17.0%       12.3%       14.6%
 55kt / 36h        3.7%        4.0%        3.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.8%        7.6%        4.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.6%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.4%        3.5%        1.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.94

 SH272026 260321 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.10    136.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.2  32.3  31.6  28.9  23.9  23.8  21.1  18.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  77.0  76.0  78.0  81.0  77.0  75.0  76.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   4.0   2.0   1.0   3.0  -1.0   2.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%