Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH272026 260321 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.60    135.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     79.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     60.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.2  31.5  27.1  22.3  23.9  22.4  19.4  18.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0  17.7  27.3  37.0  79.0  17.0  34.0  80.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  46.0  40.0  57.0  73.0  34.0  24.0  36.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  75.0  78.0  79.0  76.0  75.0  71.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0  -0.0  -0.0   4.0   2.0   1.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.1%        3.5%        4.3%
 25kt / 24h       10.2%       17.9%       14.1%
 30kt / 24h        6.7%       14.1%       10.4%
 35kt / 24h        5.0%       14.1%        9.6%
 40kt / 24h        3.9%       12.8%        8.3%
 45kt / 36h        7.5%        5.3%        6.4%
 55kt / 36h        1.6%        1.3%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        6.0%        3.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.9%        2.1%        1.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.02

 SH272026 260321 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.60    135.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.2  31.5  27.1  22.3  23.9  22.4  19.4  18.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  75.0  78.0  79.0  76.0  75.0  71.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0  -0.0  -0.0   4.0   2.0   1.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%