Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH272026 260322 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.60    134.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.5  30.2  25.2  27.7  21.5  17.4  15.8  12.9  U  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  49.0  63.0  32.0  81.0  65.0  71.0  86.0  U  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  29.0  43.0  51.0  35.0 -10.0   7.0  38.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  70.0  71.0  68.0  69.0  68.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -0.0   1.0   2.0  -4.0   5.0   2.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.8%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.3%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        1.0%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        2.0%        1.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        7.6%        2.0%        4.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.14

 SH272026 260322 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.60    134.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.5  30.2  25.2  27.7  21.5  17.4  15.8  12.9  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  70.0  71.0  68.0  69.0  68.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -0.0   1.0   2.0  -4.0   5.0   2.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%