Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH272026 260322 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.10    131.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.9  26.8  29.1  28.2  17.8  18.1  12.7  19.7  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  32.0  37.0  81.0  65.0  71.0  86.0  81.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  41.0  54.0  27.0  -3.0  11.0  38.0  57.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  74.0  71.0  70.0  67.0  63.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0   2.0  -0.0   1.0   6.0   4.0   8.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.3%        1.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        2.4%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        3.5%        2.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h       18.4%        8.2%       13.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.14

 SH272026 260322 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.10    131.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.9  26.8  29.1  28.2  17.8  18.1  12.7  19.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  74.0  71.0  70.0  67.0  63.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0   2.0  -0.0   1.0   6.0   4.0   8.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%