Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH272026 260322 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.30    130.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.8  29.4  28.8  24.0  16.5  16.8  15.5  21.2  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  78.0  81.0  25.0  52.0  79.0  86.0  70.0  U  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  54.0  27.0  16.0  11.0  14.0  71.0  34.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  74.0  71.0  72.0  69.0  68.0  60.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -0.0   3.0   4.0   4.0   5.0   2.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.6%        8.7%        5.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        3.4%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.9%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.4%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        2.0%       10.0%        6.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.8%        2.9%        1.9%
 55kt / 48h        7.2%        8.7%        8.0%
 70kt / 48h        1.9%        3.1%        2.5%
 65kt / 72h       27.0%       18.7%       22.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.12

 SH272026 260322 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.30    130.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.8  29.4  28.8  24.0  16.5  16.8  15.5  21.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  74.0  71.0  72.0  69.0  68.0  60.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -0.0   3.0   4.0   4.0   5.0   2.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%