Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH272026 260323 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.50    129.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.7  29.1  29.7  21.1  20.5  13.2  17.4  15.2  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  78.0  68.0  39.0  42.0  86.0  79.0  66.0  U  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0  57.0  24.0  -1.0 -12.0  38.0  50.0  11.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  72.0  77.0  72.0  70.0  66.0  64.0  63.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0   4.0   5.0  10.0   7.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        1.6%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        4.2%       15.3%        9.8%
 30kt / 24h        1.6%        6.5%        4.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        5.9%        3.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        4.9%        2.7%
 45kt / 36h        3.4%       17.2%       10.3%
 55kt / 36h        1.5%        5.9%        3.7%
 55kt / 48h        9.9%       13.7%       11.8%
 70kt / 48h        3.1%        6.5%        4.8%
 65kt / 72h       23.6%       26.9%       25.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.14

 SH272026 260323 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.50    129.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.7  29.1  29.7  21.1  20.5  13.2  17.4  15.2  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  72.0  77.0  72.0  70.0  66.0  64.0  63.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0   4.0   5.0  10.0   7.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%