Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH272026 260323 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.70    128.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.1  29.6  21.1  20.7  15.3  14.4  16.4  17.3  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   78.0  68.0  39.0  34.0  80.0  85.0  73.0  66.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  24.0  -1.0  -2.0   6.0  65.0  10.0  41.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  77.0  72.0  70.0  72.0  64.0  66.0  62.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0   4.0   3.0   7.0   5.0   8.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        3.7%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h       11.7%       28.6%       20.2%
 30kt / 24h        5.8%       16.3%       11.1%
 35kt / 24h        3.9%       16.3%       10.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%       13.5%        7.2%
 45kt / 36h        7.8%       33.8%       20.8%
 55kt / 36h        4.3%       16.8%       10.5%
 55kt / 48h       18.8%       26.1%       22.4%
 70kt / 48h        7.4%       14.9%       11.2%
 65kt / 72h       25.7%       37.1%       31.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.02

 SH272026 260323 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.70    128.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.1  29.6  21.1  20.7  15.3  14.4  16.4  17.3  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  77.0  72.0  70.0  72.0  64.0  66.0  62.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0   4.0   3.0   7.0   5.0   8.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%