Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH272026 260323 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.10    126.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     56.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.9  23.6  20.8  19.4  14.7  18.7  10.0  18.8  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  66.0  52.0  42.0  86.0  81.0  67.0  59.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0   1.0   4.0   4.0  52.0  46.0  21.0  34.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  69.0  70.0  71.0  68.0  70.0  65.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   7.0   3.0   5.0  10.0  12.0   6.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.4%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        3.3%       15.4%        9.3%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        7.5%        4.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        6.7%        3.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        5.1%        2.6%
 45kt / 36h        4.9%       20.9%       12.9%
 55kt / 36h        2.3%        8.2%        5.2%
 55kt / 48h       16.8%       18.9%       17.8%
 70kt / 48h        6.2%        8.0%        7.1%
 65kt / 72h       29.6%       30.0%       29.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.98

 SH272026 260323 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.10    126.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.9  23.6  20.8  19.4  14.7  18.7  10.0  18.8  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  69.0  70.0  71.0  68.0  70.0  65.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   7.0   3.0   5.0  10.0  12.0   6.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%