Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH272026 260323 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.50    125.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     53.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    139.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.7  20.6  19.4  17.7  13.1  15.9  14.2  28.6  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  34.0  42.0  81.0  88.0  76.0  62.0  44.0  U  U  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 127.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0   4.0   4.0  10.0  54.0   8.0  39.0  38.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  70.0  71.0  75.0  68.0  69.0  62.0  65.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   3.0   5.0   8.0   6.0   9.0  -6.0  -2.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.8%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        4.6%       20.3%       12.5%
 30kt / 24h        1.8%       11.1%        6.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.8%       10.3%        6.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        7.7%        3.9%
 45kt / 36h        6.5%       29.8%       18.1%
 55kt / 36h        3.2%       13.7%        8.5%
 55kt / 48h       17.8%       24.2%       21.0%
 70kt / 48h        6.8%       11.0%        8.9%
 65kt / 72h       25.5%       30.5%       28.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.98

 SH272026 260323 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.50    125.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    139.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.7  20.6  19.4  17.7  13.1  15.9  14.2  28.6  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  70.0  71.0  75.0  68.0  69.0  62.0  65.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   3.0   5.0   8.0   6.0   9.0  -6.0  -2.0  N  N  N  F  N  F  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%