Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH272026 260324 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.80    124.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.7  20.3  17.0  14.7  19.4  14.9  19.6  36.5  N  N  F  F  N  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  42.0  81.0  86.0  86.0  70.0  51.0  19.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 117.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     4.0   4.0  10.0  52.0  46.0   2.0  34.0  16.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  74.0  68.0  70.0  65.0  64.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   7.0  10.0  11.0  15.0  -1.0 -29.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        2.2%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        7.3%       24.3%       15.8%
 30kt / 24h        3.6%       12.9%        8.3%
 35kt / 24h        2.6%       12.0%        7.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%       10.9%        5.6%
 45kt / 36h        9.9%       31.6%       20.8%
 55kt / 36h        5.8%       15.1%       10.4%
 55kt / 48h       23.4%       24.5%       23.9%
 70kt / 48h       10.5%       12.5%       11.5%
 65kt / 72h       19.0%       23.8%       21.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.96

 SH272026 260324 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.80    124.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.7  20.3  17.0  14.7  19.4  14.9  19.6  36.5  N  N  N  U  N  U  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  74.0  68.0  70.0  65.0  64.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   7.0  10.0  11.0  15.0  -1.0 -29.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%