Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH272026 260324 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.00    123.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  21.4  17.5  21.1  15.7  18.3  27.1  37.3  N  N  F  N  F  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   71.0  81.0  86.0  86.0  73.0  62.0  37.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 122.0  98.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -4.0  -2.0  24.0  51.0   8.0   9.0  24.0  -3.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  68.0  68.0  65.0  62.0  58.0  60.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  13.0  15.0  11.0  12.0  -3.0 -14.0 -65.0  U  U  U  U  U  N VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.3%        6.7%        5.5%
 25kt / 24h       19.6%       41.4%       30.5%
 30kt / 24h       11.7%       26.6%       19.2%
 35kt / 24h        9.1%       26.3%       17.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%       23.6%       12.7%
 45kt / 36h       21.0%       49.2%       35.1%
 55kt / 36h       14.7%       29.9%       22.3%
 55kt / 48h       33.6%       33.3%       33.5%
 70kt / 48h       17.5%       19.6%       18.6%
 65kt / 72h       10.8%       21.6%       16.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.82

 SH272026 260324 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.00    123.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  21.4  17.5  21.1  15.7  18.3  27.1  37.3  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  68.0  68.0  65.0  62.0  58.0  60.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  13.0  15.0  11.0  12.0  -3.0 -14.0 -65.0  F  F  F  F  F  N VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%